Britain’s top managed hospitality groups achieved year-on-year sales growth of just 0.6% in October, the latest edition of the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker shows.
It marks the fourth month of below-inflation like-for-like growth in a row, and means the Tracker is now at its lowest point since April.
The flattening of sales reflects fragile consumer confidence amid ongoing cost increases, as well as poor weather for much of October. Weak growth raises concerns for trading over the crucial Christmas period, and adds to new pressures on hospitality’s tax burden set out in the government’s recent Budget.
October’s figures are mitigated to some extent by Halloween, which usually boosts trading but fell on a Thursday this year. Many celebrations will, therefore, have taken place over the following weekend, and Tracker data from early November shows they have contributed to a bright start to the month for pubs and bars in particular.
The Tracker — produced by CGA by NIQ in partnership with RSM UK — shows total sales growth in October — including new venues opened during the last 12 months — was slightly better at 2.4%. Managed pubs achieved like-for-like growth of 1.5%, but it was a challenging month for restaurants, where sales were clipped by 0.1%.
Elsewhere in the hospitality sector, bars saw sales fall 4.2% below the levels of October 2023. On-the-go groups performed best of the major segments with 4.3% growth — possibly the result of some consumers trading down their spending from meals out.
For the third month in a row, growth in London lagged the rest of the country. Managed groups’ sales inside the M25 were down by 0.1% year-on-year, while venues further afield achieved 0.9% growth.
Trading conditions will remain difficult
“It’s clearly been a tough autumn for many restaurants, pubs, and bars, and real-terms growth remains elusive,” said Karl Chessell, director, hospitality operators and food, EMEA, at CGA by NIQ. “Conditions haven’t been helped by the Budget, which is imposing significant new costs on businesses via National Insurance contributions while giving consumers little encouragement on spending.
“It is going to be a make-or-break Christmas for some operators, and while underlying demand for hospitality remains good, trading conditions are likely to remain very difficult well into 2025.”
Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, added: “October’s disappointing results shows the industry essentially stalled last month, with poor weather and concerns about potential tax rises in the autumn Budget putting consumers off from venturing out. In hindsight, many of those fears were misplaced, as the Budget did not directly increase taxes on consumers.
“However, the proposed fiscal changes are expected to have a severe impact on the hospitality industry, with increases in National Minimum Wage, employers’ NIC ,and business rates all set to reduce margins and push some businesses into the red.
“Looking ahead, operators will have little choice but to raise prices, although without a significant boost in consumer confidence, there is little guarantee this will translate into positive like-for-like sales.”
